Nowcasting Injury Trends

Section 1: Use Case Identifiers

Use Case ID: HHS-CDC-00046
Agency: HHS
Op Div/Staff Div: CDC
Use Case Topic Area: Health & Medical
Is the AI use case found in the below list of general commercial AI products and services?
None of the above.
What is the intended purpose and expected benefits of the AI?
Predicting current injury rates and real time estimates of injuries and deaths. The internal dashboard that will be created as a result of this effort will enhance the understanding of injury trends and expedite surveillance and research activities. This initiative will have a direct impact on the speed at which emerging trends in injuries resulting in deaths are identified and investigated.

Gold standard data take time to process and be made available. Real-time insight of injury trends when gold standard data are not available can be a resource resulting in timelier situational awareness to inform injury surveillance efforts.
Describe the AI system's outputs.
An internal-facing, interactive dashboard incorporating multiple traditional and non-traditional datasets and a multi-stage machine learning pipeline to 'nowcast' injury death trends nationally on a week-to-week basis.
Stage of Development: Operation and Maintenance
Is the AI use case rights-impacting, safety-impacting, both, or neither?
Neither

Section 2: Use Case Summary

Date Initiated: 01/2021
Date when Acquisition and/or Development began: 01/2021
Date Implemented: 01/2022
Date Retired: N/A
Was the AI system involved in this use case developed (or is it to be developed) under contract(s) or in-house?
Developed in-house.
Provide the Procurement Instrument Identifier(s) (PIID) of the contract(s) used.
N/A
Is this AI use case supporting a High-Impact Service Provider (HISP) public-facing service?
N/A
Does this AI use case disseminate information to the public?
No
How is the agency ensuring compliance with Information Quality Act guidelines, if applicable?
N/A
Does this AI use case involve personally identifiable information (PII) that is maintained by the agency?
No
Has the Senior Agency Official for Privacy (SAOP) assessed the privacy risks associated with this AI use case?
ongoing

Section 3: Data and Code

Do you have access to an enterprise data catalog or agency-wide data repository that enables you to identify whether or not the necessary datasets exist and are ready to develop your use case?
No
Describe any agency-owned data used to train, fine-tune, and/or evaluate performance of the model(s) used in this use case.
Emergendy Department data from the National Syndromic Surveillance Program
Is there available documentation for the model training and evaluation data that demonstrates the degree to which it is appropriate to be used in analysis or for making predictions?
Documentation is widely available
Which, if any, demographic variables does the AI use case explicitly use as model features?
N/A
Does this project include custom-developed code?
Yes
If the code is open-source, provide the link for the publicly available source code.
N/A

Section 4: AI Enablement and Infrastructure

Does this AI use case have an associated Authority to Operate (ATO) for an AI system?
Yes
System Name: Enterprise Data Analytics and Visualization (EDAV) Platform
How long have you waited for the necessary developer tools to implement the AI use case?
6-12 months
For this AI use case, is the required IT infrastructure provisioned via a centralized intake form or process inside the agency?
Yes
Do you have a process in place to request access to computing resources for model training and development of the AI involved in this use case?
Yes
Has communication regarding the provisioning of your requested resources been timely?
Yes
How are existing data science tools, libraries, data products, and internally-developed AI infrastructure being re-used for the current AI use case?
Use of existing data platforms
Has information regarding the AI use case, including performance metrics and intended use of the model, been made available for review and feedback within the agency?
Limited documentation for review