Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics Disease Modeling

Section 1: Use Case Identifiers

Use Case ID: HHS-CDC-00019
Agency: HHS
Op Div/Staff Div: CDC
Use Case Topic Area: Health & Medical
Is the AI use case found in the below list of general commercial AI products and services?
None of the above.
What is the intended purpose and expected benefits of the AI?
Federal and State, Tribal, Local, and Territorial health department responses to disease outbreaks depends on being able to predict the future behavior of a given outbreak as well as the potential impact of different responses to the outbreak. This project aims to build models of disease spread that allow for (1) determining if and where infection/impact rates are growing or increasing (2) forecasting future disease progression (3) modeling specific scenarios such as the impact of vaccination.

We use model output to provide information to Federal and SLTT decision makers to improve disease response. This allows those decision makers to determine where and how to direct resources in a disease out break as well as the impact of potential response actions. This kind of insight is critically dependent on mathematical modeling.
Describe the AI system's outputs.
This project models disease spread and impact based upon a set of models, a variety of data sources, and allows for the inclusion of the impact of potential public health actions such as vaccinations. These insights can be used by public health decision makers to inform current and future responses to public health emergencies
Stage of Development: Implementation and Assessment
Is the AI use case rights-impacting, safety-impacting, both, or neither?
Neither

Section 2: Use Case Summary

Date Initiated: 04/2022
Date when Acquisition and/or Development began: 04/2022
Date Implemented: N/A
Date Retired: N/A
Was the AI system involved in this use case developed (or is it to be developed) under contract(s) or in-house?
Developed with both contracting and in-house resources.
Provide the Procurement Instrument Identifier(s) (PIID) of the contract(s) used.
75D30123F16628
Is this AI use case supporting a High-Impact Service Provider (HISP) public-facing service?
N/A
Does this AI use case disseminate information to the public?
No
How is the agency ensuring compliance with Information Quality Act guidelines, if applicable?
N/A
Does this AI use case involve personally identifiable information (PII) that is maintained by the agency?
No
Has the Senior Agency Official for Privacy (SAOP) assessed the privacy risks associated with this AI use case?
ongoing

Section 3: Data and Code

Do you have access to an enterprise data catalog or agency-wide data repository that enables you to identify whether or not the necessary datasets exist and are ready to develop your use case?
Yes
Describe any agency-owned data used to train, fine-tune, and/or evaluate performance of the model(s) used in this use case.
A wide array of public health data including hospital admissions data from NHSN, emergency department visit data from NSSP, case reports provided to CDC from local jurisdictions, variant prevalence data sourced from public health laboratory samples, wastewater data from NWSS, and other related sources.
Is there available documentation for the model training and evaluation data that demonstrates the degree to which it is appropriate to be used in analysis or for making predictions?
Documentation is complete
Which, if any, demographic variables does the AI use case explicitly use as model features?
N/A
Does this project include custom-developed code?
Yes
If the code is open-source, provide the link for the publicly available source code.
https://github.com/cdcgov/dynode; https://github.com/cdcgov/ixa -- note, not all code is currently public

Section 4: AI Enablement and Infrastructure

Does this AI use case have an associated Authority to Operate (ATO) for an AI system?
Yes
System Name: Enterprise Data Analytics and Visualization (EDAV) Platform, EDAV-EXT, 1 CDC Data Platform (1CDP)
How long have you waited for the necessary developer tools to implement the AI use case?
Less than 6 months
For this AI use case, is the required IT infrastructure provisioned via a centralized intake form or process inside the agency?
Yes
Do you have a process in place to request access to computing resources for model training and development of the AI involved in this use case?
Yes
Has communication regarding the provisioning of your requested resources been timely?
Yes
How are existing data science tools, libraries, data products, and internally-developed AI infrastructure being re-used for the current AI use case?
Re-use production level code from a different use-case
Has information regarding the AI use case, including performance metrics and intended use of the model, been made available for review and feedback within the agency?
Documentation has been published